La Liga · resolved market
Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c49efda709d48f4e615746c700cf6e9e6271d1683244919afa296d5320393e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 19c | 22,111$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,090.92 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 20c | 14,546$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 79c | 14,400$11,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,026.23 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 21c | 7,337$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.31 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 79c | 7,076$5,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.92 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 79c | 5,999$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.88 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 23c | 4,770$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.34 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 79c | 4,270$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.76 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 77c | 2,405$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.2 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 2,371$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.4 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 21c | 2,322$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.86 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 21c | 2,050$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.5 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 78c | 1,966$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.85 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 7c | 1,467$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 80c | 672.36$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 516.73$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 80c | 516.38$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 22c | 498.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c86…f1f1backed No | 80c | 458.75$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…d31ebacked Yes | 22c | 222.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -65%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…30abbacked No | 79c | 112.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 17.8%23 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 94.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…cad3backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 78c | 29.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will Osasuna vs. Elche CF end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.