Bundesliga · resolved market
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c8a51dcb3a442b4ec54bf8e26ff95ba1f0159b43e0953713742da107487cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 1c | 68,044$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.22 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 2,476$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.74 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…b809backed Yes | 18c | 1,597$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,540$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 18c | 603.77$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 497.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 5c | 471.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 19c | 433.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 12c | 357.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 10c | 339.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Yes | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 19c | 245.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 19c | 190.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Yes | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 11c | 144$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 19c | 142.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0151…3691backed Yes | 11c | 115.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 18c | 98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 82.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…92d8backed Yes | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 19c | 66.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 18c | 62.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…fa23backed Yes | 19c | 62.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.