Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f77e76e670ce06122a93641aa34608cc75dd41921e5d835d92d61703046d52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 13c | 29,163$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,791.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,639$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.43 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 13c | 4,080$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,380$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 2,986$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.12 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 13c | 2,726$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…f0b8backed Yes | 14c | 2,032$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 13c | 1,708$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.06 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 6c | 1,449$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 13c | 874.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 4c | 622.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 13c | 457.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…5286backed Yes | 12c | 397.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…f704backed Yes | 13c | 378.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 75c | 341.74$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 14c | 338.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 14c | 338.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 10c | 295.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Yes | 5c | 265.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 10c | 203.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…3e4abacked Yes | 13c | 202$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 7c | 199.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 13c | 182.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Yes | 14c | 169.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…aa81backed Yes | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…f14fbacked Yes | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Yes | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…92d8backed Yes | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4688…6469backed Yes | 13c | 101.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 11c | 98.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…313dbacked Yes | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb39…6f51backed Yes | 11c | 92.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked Yes | 13c | 89.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…be4dbacked Yes | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…b416backed Yes | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 13c | 81.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…1243backed Yes | 14c | 81.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da1…4f6abacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-26?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.