Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3df701dd8f458466f107d708eb40dfe73d4ec6f23e3616329bddd4acf47f5e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Tsitsipas | 43c | 568.24$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.84 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Aguilar | 57c | 516.01$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.19 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Tsitsipas | 47c | 489.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.68 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Tsitsipas | 44c | 459.29$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.2 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Tsitsipas | 44c | 442.34$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.1 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Aguilar | 60c | 409.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tsitsipas | 42c | 403.53$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.61 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Aguilar | 61c | 298.82$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Aguilar | 59c | 272.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tsitsipas | 40c | 270.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…7744backed Aguilar | 59c | 247.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Aguilar | 56c | 221.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Tsitsipas | 48c | 214.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Aguilar | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…9aacbacked Aguilar | 56c | 197.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Tsitsipas | 39c | 188.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Aguilar | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Aguilar | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Aguilar | 59c | 165.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Aguilar | 60c | 162.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aguilar | 54c | 159$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Tsitsipas | 41c | 119.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Aguilar | 53c | 108.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Aguilar | 56c | 104.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Tsitsipas | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Tsitsipas | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Tsitsipas | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed Aguilar | 53c | 95.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Tsitsipas | 45c | 87.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Aguilar | 57c | 83.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Aguilar | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Tsitsipas | 39c | 49.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Tsitsipas | 42c | 46.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Aguilar | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Aguilar | 58c | 41.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Aguilar | 55c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…61d9backed Aguilar | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas | 42c | 25.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Aguilar | 59c | 19.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)this page
- Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida AguilarStefanos Tsitsipas won
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs AguilarTsitsipas won
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Tsitsipas vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tsitsipas vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.