Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Aguilar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf946cc0247e47075f571e48396a3dd7026288c8236eaef9783c6338b92e098d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tsitsipas | 59c | 779.37$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Aguilar | 44c | 479.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Aguilar | 40c | 260.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 378 | 49.2%186 W · 192 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tsitsipas | 55c | 188.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas | 60c | 167.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 120.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -13.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Aguilar | 39c | 108.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Aguilar | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Tsitsipas | 58c | 99.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Aguilar | 61c | 91.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Aguilar | 39c | 86.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 78.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…0bcebacked Aguilar | 39c | 70.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Aguilar | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…6884backed Aguilar | 45c | 61.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Aguilar | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tsitsipas | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…d019backed Aguilar | 40c | 48.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 43.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Aguilar | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 346 | 48.3%167 W · 179 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tsitsipas | 60c | 41.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Aguilar | 40c | 28.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…36adbacked Aguilar | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Aguilarthis page
- Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida AguilarStefanos Tsitsipas won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)Tsitsipas won
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Tsitsipas vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tsitsipas vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.