Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3fe479cb247d9433d17d5c561c4d54b19ca88cb7a3db3fa90920a934752a77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Xtreme Gaming, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,004 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 56c | 19,618$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,618.13 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 9,411$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,139.84 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Xtreme Gaming | 36c | 4,903$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.59 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 4,651$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 4,519$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.16 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons | 62c | 4,201$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.62 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 3,002$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.44 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 2,786$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.78 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 2,297$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.76 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Xtreme Gaming | 34c | 2,275$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.14 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 21c | 2,222$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.69 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 2,200$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 60c | 2,152$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.77 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Team Falcons | 56c | 1,797$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.18 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 1,646$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.56 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Xtreme Gaming | 36c | 1,300$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.79 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…b857backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 1,183$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons | 77c | 1,140$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.97 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 1,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Falcons | 68c | 682.1$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.43 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 598.14$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Xtreme Gaming | 36c | 532.46$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 437.65$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.9 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons | 63c | 405$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 400$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.53 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 328.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Falcons | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Team Falcons | 61c | 280.13$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Xtreme Gaming | 20c | 254.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Team Falcons | 68c | 253.49$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Team Falcons | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Xtreme Gaming | 16c | 193.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Team Falcons | 55c | 182.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 57c | 182.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Team Falcons | 80c | 158.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 134.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 128.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 37c | 107.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…42eebacked Team Falcons | 57c | 105.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 101.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Xtreme Gaming | 31c | 96.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons | 55c | 82.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…9428backed Team Falcons | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Team Falcons | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 75.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Xtreme Gaming | 28c | 72.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…f000backed Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 64.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…327abacked Xtreme Gaming | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c90…f87cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…1fbfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 32c | 54.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 49.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Falcons | 65c | 48.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Xtreme Gaming | 30c | 42.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…60ccbacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Falcons | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed Team Falcons | 51c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…236dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.