Australian A League · resolved market
Will Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4311b5038281468c0c1b1312c0ce97f2b5f929b15ea26855b321cf9153039b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7f…2658backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,669$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 22c | 3,561$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.42 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 80c | 2,146$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,665$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.07 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,409$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked No | 80c | 1,083$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb101…5024backed Yes | 30c | 863.33$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 839$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 494.67$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 22c | 336.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 319.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 234.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…eb9dbacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 18c | 199.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 21c | 190.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…dd78backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 22c | 161.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 151.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…7320backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 78c | 147$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 79c | 139.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 122.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…0853backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…9908backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 31c | 64.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…f7bdbacked Yes | 22c | 64.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 27c | 59.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 52.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 74c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 80c | 28.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…d3fcbacked No | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…8019backed No | 80c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…d137backed No | 80c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4360…1635backed No | 80c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-18?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.