Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9370ae817d668bfd3ef7b2cc8bc2e0358802b4b03968047f3e01792e3f90ce50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 10,993$2,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,937.76 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 18c | 7,319$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,001.5 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 4,768$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.93 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 23c | 4,462$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.78 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…2266backed Yes | 23c | 2,686$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 1c | 2,391$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…2658backed Yes | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…58e4backed Yes | 18c | 1,891$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Yes | 45c | 1,368$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 19c | 1,204$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.06 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 1,082$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.53 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 796.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.98 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 5c | 776.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 732.76$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 709.71$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.86 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…1f93backed Yes | 19c | 642.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 18c | 611.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.08 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 19c | 526.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.58 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 37c | 413.32$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca5…a81dbacked No | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 22c | 357.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.54 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 16c | 343.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…2ad0backed Yes | 75c | 328.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 18c | 317.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed No | 14c | 282.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…ab57backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 234.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 6c | 225.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 40c | 225$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 53c | 211.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Yes | 18c | 157.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…7bbdbacked Yes | 39c | 142.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes | 21c | 139.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 45c | 135.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…eb9dbacked Yes | 20c | 125.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…6cefbacked Yes | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 17c | 115$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…efc2backed Yes | 79c | 104.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 73c | 102.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 26c | 101.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Yes | 19c | 94.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 58c | 79.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 24cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 46c | 64.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 72c | 52.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed No | 56c | 41.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…10a3backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 59c | 34.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 47c | 31.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 28.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed No | 47c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Yes | 73c | 22.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…3c57backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…1b43backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…d84dbacked No | 63c | 17.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.