South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43f4fe2288e7e945dcfcdd808bdbc07bf96b832ea35f8a0222b7cdfda0bf079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coritiba FBCof Grêmio FBPA, Coritiba FBC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf21b…0167backed Grêmio FBPA | 49c | 702.4$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Coritiba FBC | 50c | 610.13$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.07 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Grêmio FBPA | 35c | 271.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Coritiba FBC | 64c | 205.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Coritiba FBC | 78c | 125.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grêmio FBPA | 22c | 77.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Grêmio FBPA | 36c | 49.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Coritiba FBC | 49c | 49.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Coritiba FBC | 53c | 44.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Grêmio FBPA | 50c | 40.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Coritiba FBC | 64c | 35.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Grêmio FBPA | 75c | 17.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Coritiba FBC | 76c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Coritiba FBC (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Coritiba FBC (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Coritiba FBC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.