Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4586f060359f61ba6b18b34445d46fe7e9b819558c9914bf094590d8c436d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 380.96$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 316.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 255.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 189.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 8c | 183.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 28c | 166.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.58 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 44c | 155.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 139.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 108.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 25c | 104.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 101.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 96.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 90.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 88.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 86.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 35c | 78.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 76.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 68.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 68.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 63.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 61.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 60.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 77c | 52.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 52.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 48.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 47.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 40c | 42.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 41c | 35.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 44c | 33.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 66c | 31.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 73c | 31.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 30.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 26.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 25.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 48c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 65c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 24.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 23.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 72c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 18.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 68c | 15.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.