Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae63712e1a08465afc3a0ed0552e82b98add28c7b26ff4e5192e2f5e25ec481c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 42c | 869.69$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 588.88$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 300.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 241.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 201.12$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 46c | 169.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9141…fffbbacked Yes | 56c | 168.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 151.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 37c | 148.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 145.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 125.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 105.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 103.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 86.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 78.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed Yes | 54c | 71.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 54c | 66.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 65.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 65.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 47c | 63.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 61.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 58c | 52.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 56c | 50.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 50c | 46.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…3abfbacked No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 43.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 41.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 41.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 38.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 37.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 45c | 37.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 36c | 35.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 53c | 35.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 43c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 45c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 38c | 26.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 66c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 25.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 23.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 50c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 62c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.