Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa462eed6cd02c7fcc2e786f2bedefd1f2b04678fd3d6a3b84a4582794d8a2738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 1,530$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 1,295$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.24 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,130$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 7c | 1,070$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 1,052$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 75c | 985$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Yes | 3c | 449.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Yes | 25c | 319.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 14c | 233.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 203$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 26c | 199.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 9c | 191$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 15c | 174.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 168.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 161.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…529ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 26c | 86.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…8ab5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 24c | 67.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…4c2ebacked Yes | 22c | 65.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 57.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…7515backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76ad…c852backed No | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…62eabacked No | 79c | 18.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 75c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…414abacked No | 79c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff7…4ae6backed No | 79c | 12.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.