Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a6beb19cbc4a2b1358b5b377ac8f0c6e06b8a497fc7ee772e0fad8b376b9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 34c | 9,251$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.1 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 4c | 5,431$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 5c | 5,255$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 3c | 2,603$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 79c | 2,448$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 13c | 2,386$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.96 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 23c | 2,009$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 21c | 1,356$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.38 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed No | 6c | 1,325$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 20c | 1,133$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.72 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,032$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.77 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…6c23backed No | 10c | 999.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 47c | 842.42$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 5c | 776.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 48c | 481.58$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 347$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.24 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 69c | 215.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…341cbacked No | 9c | 172.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 166.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Yes | 21c | 161.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 54c | 130.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed No | 11c | 123.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 24c | 116.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 19c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 79c | 96.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 77c | 89.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 69c | 72.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 76c | 70.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…5473backed Yes | 26c | 42.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 57c | 37.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed No | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed No | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 75c | 28.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -71%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 17.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 64c | 17.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 77c | 14.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.