Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa49b9c1ce2f5a43befa3275ba2782acd47ccca8180b42e68b4bd76f3bc52e581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Paul, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Paul | 48c | 25,094$12,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,050 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…b964backed Cerundolo | 51c | 18,430$9,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,030.89 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…e272backed Cerundolo | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Paul | 43c | 1,342$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 57c | 1,071$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.87 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Paul | 39c | 890.99$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.47 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Cerundolo | 61c | 889.38$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.86 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Cerundolo | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Cerundolo | 52c | 410.19$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.71 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Paul | 53c | 281.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Cerundolo | 32c | 236.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Cerundolo | 54c | 122.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cerundolo | 72c | 117.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Paul | 43c | 101.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Paul | 22c | 99.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Cerundolo | 59c | 73.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Cerundolo | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cerundolo | 51c | 71.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Paul | 48c | 62.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Paul | 46c | 56.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Cerundolo | 59c | 50.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Paul | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cerundolo | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Cerundolo | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Paul | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Cerundolo | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 162 | 57.4%93 W · 69 L | +13.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Paul | 42c | 40.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Cerundolo | 57c | 39.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Cerundolo | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Cerundolo | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Cerundolo | 57c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cerundolo | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Cerundolo | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy PaulFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs PaulPaul won
- Set 2 Winner: Cerundolo vs PaulCerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.