Tennis · resolved market
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7322e37d89b8ba2bc1a3cbd4826a89334e3f72b62dc7565620b9b7286c1c0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 6,718$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.14 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.56 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 53c | 4,111$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.88 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 46c | 900$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 751.75$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.16 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 454.54$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 52c | 433.78$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.22 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…910dbacked Over | 54c | 203.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 54c | 197.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Under | 46c | 185.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Over | 54c | 97.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 54c | 90.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Under | 48c | 65.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 54c | 54.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 47c | 54.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 47c | 53.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 48c | 28.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 54c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…52aebacked Under | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Over | 53c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc572…fc7ebacked Over | 62c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy PaulFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs PaulPaul won
- Set 2 Winner: Cerundolo vs PaulCerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.