Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ab100c202f212fcc3e3ad2d3bd05d28aaa66e93e5be4cd6f41ca8d3ecaaa89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0254…34b3backed No | 61c | 8,682$5,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,387.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 40c | 7,570$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.22 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 20c | 6,343$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.83 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…50c2backed No | 77c | 4,545$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 23c | 4,545$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.26 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked No | 53c | 1,903$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.45 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 52c | 1,093$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.68 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,024$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 24c | 743.18$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3a…383cbacked No | 77c | 532.47$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…c0cdbacked Yes | 24c | 412$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 30c | 366.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…7a21backed Yes | 25c | 366$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 23c | 354.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 23c | 263.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…55efbacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 189.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 165.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…79e9backed Yes | 41c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…902dbacked No | 77c | 125.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…aedebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe528…6385backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 22c | 98.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 20c | 95.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Yes | 22c | 77.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 29c | 70.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62e…dd41backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…3a39backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…1d08backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…2acabacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw?this page
- Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.