Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ad3527720bf75f86f88e681a14d6fd7c459ae2fd2dedb0f369d71e2f162e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 15,173$9,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,708.86 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Yellow Submarine | 31c | 8,758$2,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000.01 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 5,209$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.11 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 4,333$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.45 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Tundra Esports | 23c | 1,937$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.06 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 1,814$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.78 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 1,405$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.68 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yellow Submarine | 29c | 1,073$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.5 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 788.94$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.74 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 720.13$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.38 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports | 25c | 603.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 595.02$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.88 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 562.77$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.84 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Tundra Esports | 25c | 521.63$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 520.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 499.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…f476backed Tundra Esports | 21c | 481.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 480.74$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Tundra Esports | 9c | 424.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 422.65$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.07 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…2fafbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 372.76$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 173 | 73.4%127 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked Yellow Submarine | 34c | 353.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 337.86$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Yellow Submarine | 31c | 336.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.15 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 286.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 256.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 237.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 226.63$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Tundra Esports | 47c | 212.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…7e44backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 211.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…a8f2backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 202.75$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 189.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Yellow Submarine | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 153.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yellow Submarine | 40c | 151.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…f9d1backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 162 | 40.7%66 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 29c | 139.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Yellow Submarine | 55c | 133.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 124.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 120.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Yellow Submarine | 23c | 117.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 115.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yellow Submarine | 28c | 114.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 100.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Tundra Esports | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Tundra Esports | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Yellow Submarine | 33c | 90.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed Yellow Submarine | 35c | 84.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked Tundra Esports | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Tundra Esports | 30c | 60.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tundra Esports | 34c | 58.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Tundra Esports | 28c | 55.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…d75fbacked Tundra Esports | 20c | 50.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…0a7dbacked Yellow Submarine | 52c | 47.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yellow Submarine | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 46.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yellow Submarine | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Yellow Submarine | 34c | 44.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 42.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Yellow Submarine | 34c | 38.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 180 | 42.8%77 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…6d98backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 33.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 32.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…b972backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 31.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 27.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yellow Submarine | 57c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…cd32backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 19.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…03fcbacked Yellow Submarine | 64c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.