Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58cb19e0d34bb54948eb6581843fb01fb2de73af25eee1ec63bd909c06b496e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x029a…93fbbacked Tundra Esports | 0c | 62,162$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…6c2ebacked Tundra Esports | 0c | 24,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Tundra Esports | 18c | 4,615$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.73 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 4,382$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.25 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 2,488$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.69 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 2,146$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.3 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 1,866$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 926.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.69 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…9f48backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 790.4$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 746.68$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.45 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…3241backed Tundra Esports | 14c | 714.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Yellow Submarine | 58c | 713.94$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.56 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 600.11$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.03 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports | 43c | 600$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 553.89$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.89 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 517.3$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.48 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 500$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.91 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 499.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.98 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 481.83$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports | 47c | 457.34$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.41 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Yellow Submarine | 19c | 455.59$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 447.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.83 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Yellow Submarine | 70c | 444.06$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 407.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.31 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…f476backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…ff8cbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 389.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Yellow Submarine | 49c | 296.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592c…ee32backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 283.31$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…396dbacked Yellow Submarine | 28c | 245$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 218.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 217.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yellow Submarine | 23c | 215.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.86 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Tundra Esports | 36c | 207.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…3c44backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 195.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 193.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Yellow Submarine | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 174.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Tundra Esports | 74c | 166.37$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 153.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tundra Esports | 23c | 130.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Yellow Submarine | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…5415backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 105.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 100.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Tundra Esports | 37c | 91.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Yellow Submarine | 18c | 66.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 66.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 65.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 60.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 55.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Tundra Esports | 22c | 49.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 48.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 47.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Yellow Submarine | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 41.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3fa8backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 40.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…1068backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 33.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 29.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 28.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…ba84backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…19a4backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 17.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -9.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.