Stocks · resolved market
Roaring Kitty billionaire by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ae7bd4acf2e291e870b0a89df20ac186b30c4942f02ff14004d11347b7c3f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $296,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $316,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 2c | 19,673$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…c756backed Yes | 3c | 15,714$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…a995backed Yes | 3c | 13,000$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 11,639$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.92 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…3734backed Yes | 35c | 10,189$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d35…0a41backed Yes | 9c | 6,103$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +298%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,493$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…424cbacked Yes | 49c | 3,741$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 3c | 3,628$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…0baebacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…1cdabacked Yes | 35c | 2,600$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 4c | 2,549$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…0fd9backed Yes | 31c | 2,479$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…15c0backed No | 72c | 2,363$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…71aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 11c | 2,106$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…9fa3backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…2f0bbacked No | 70c | 1,366$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 7c | 1,242$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…38d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…50fbbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…f111backed Yes | 12c | 983.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 68c | 877.02$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 44c | 775$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 12c | 688.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…06e0backed Yes | 34c | 639.18$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 26c | 600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…c2cbbacked Yes | 9c | 590.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d66backed No | 63c | 588.22$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…729ebacked Yes | 16c | 585.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 63c | 399.99$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…5d99backed Yes | 46c | 372.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 24c | 349$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4f…2a03backed Yes | 31c | 317.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…a910backed Yes | 26c | 302.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 33c | 276.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…a151backed Yes | 18c | 271.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…761cbacked Yes | 49c | 204.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 51c | 204.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…98c9backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…a854backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5a…efaebacked Yes | 26c | 191.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 30c | 161.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed No | 66c | 124.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…f334backed Yes | 46c | 91.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…7b00backed No | 55c | 91.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2096…ca7dbacked No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…7c83backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 64c | 65.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…6f77backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…9b05backed Yes | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.