Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b174d313506e2aa435f6fcdf55f5cb482709ada65620550bf27ccba9c3c47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…7016backed Under | 33c | 3,985$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 3,637$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.08 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 67c | 3,458$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.26 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…21b9backed Under | 50c | 3,128$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 1,724$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.06 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,640$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.2 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 757.75$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.68 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712e…0485backed Under | 50c | 323.47$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 30c | 233.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 70c | 208.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 68c | 205.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 59c | 182.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 32c | 176.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…295abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 50c | 96.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 50c | 96.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 51c | 94.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 47c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 50c | 69.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 56.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 42.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 50c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Over | 50c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.