Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf51b23c93f26508d5a5ca2f2ef96aa00f88256e9712008241426e289b2c02e03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 2c | 1,062$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 1,037$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.26 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 661.15$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.14 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 576.68$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 54c | 430.7$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…fad4backed Under | 46c | 322.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 39c | 281.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 80c | 249.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 53c | 226.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 52c | 148.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 46c | 138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 120.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Under | 46c | 108.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 81.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 46c | 44.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 54c | 44.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 44.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 79c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 47c | 36.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 43c | 35.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 57c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 45c | 29.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.