Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957194c170493b0900c7c23a8ce1831da71fc74c3a0a02570adaec5d3433a741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nagoya Grampusof Nagoya Grampus, Gamba Ōsaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nagoya Grampus | 15c | 2,144$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.54 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Nagoya Grampus | 17c | 1,853$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.21 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Gamba Ōsaka | 70c | 1,576$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.34 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Nagoya Grampus | 35c | 999.98$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.62 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Gamba Ōsaka | 71c | 357$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.47 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Gamba Ōsaka | 62c | 265.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Gamba Ōsaka | 62c | 252.02$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +82%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Gamba Ōsaka | 62c | 215.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Nagoya Grampus | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Nagoya Grampus | 14c | 127.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Gamba Ōsaka | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Nagoya Grampus | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Gamba Ōsaka | 62c | 38.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Gamba Ōsaka | 62c | 22.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.