Fifa International · resolved market
Will Any Team Participate in 3+ Penalty Shootouts in the Knockout Phase?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c0a01e563d0003f60531694d2799b76989647405cb5fb36b9c427cbe33bd13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1671…2f6dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,217$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 711.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…6fd8backed Yes | 3c | 688.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 626.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…d268backed Yes | 14c | 553.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed No | 80c | 548.46$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 4c | 521.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 7c | 455.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 16c | 356.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 9c | 284.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 11c | 272.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 265.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…2d85backed Yes | 20c | 250.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 182.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…a0f2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.