TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Shymkent: Ergi Kirkin vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gilles Arnaud Baillyof Ergi Kirkin, Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Ergi Kirkin33c3,212$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.3111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a84…e271backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly71c3,140$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.6313959%82 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Ergi Kirkin9c1,942$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.798,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Ergi Kirkin15c1,290$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.461,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ergi Kirkin22c1,176$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.672,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Ergi Kirkin41c916.36$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.7160856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly59c826.61$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9152460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly61c767.09$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.686,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc953…01bfbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly66c635.21$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.975442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1b…46a7backed Ergi Kirkin9c599.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Ergi Kirkin34c564.91$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.071,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1403…6c62backed Ergi Kirkin23c547.48$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly65c491.84$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.24,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Ergi Kirkin21c470.95$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0438013.9%53 W · 327 L-38.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x652d…8f3ebacked Ergi Kirkin6c441.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x586f…3184backed Ergi Kirkin4c433.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+525%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…e794backed Ergi Kirkin4c418.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+525%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9072…efb8backed Ergi Kirkin17c406.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…0d5fbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly77c392$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly60c386.62$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.013,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly61c360.64$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.651,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x197d…8314backed Ergi Kirkin16c343.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+525%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4c…e05fbacked Ergi Kirkin17c329.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+776.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Ergi Kirkin39c320.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.129952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly60c302.56$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0229444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Ergi Kirkin20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fa…3277backed Ergi Kirkin5c225.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly60c222.26$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9128552.3%149 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…a528backed Ergi Kirkin16c206.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…143cbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly60c188.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.485251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaaa…6849backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly77c182$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Ergi Kirkin40c180.04$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.023464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+36.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Ergi Kirkin40c179.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9658734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2798…a9c7backed Ergi Kirkin28c177.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5611041.8%46 W · 64 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ergi Kirkin6c171.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.397,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…a832backed Ergi Kirkin16c165.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae0…5c53backed Ergi Kirkin21c165$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ergi Kirkin17c156.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.176,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Ergi Kirkin34c123.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1285748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…97d6backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly79c105.65$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Ergi Kirkin40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ergi Kirkin45c99.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.959,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Ergi Kirkin14c98.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Ergi Kirkin41c94.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Ergi Kirkin32c93.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.395050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ergi Kirkin26c92.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.182,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Ergi Kirkin40c92.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8639534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf9…626dbacked Ergi Kirkin17c88.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1627936.2%101 W · 178 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly58c73.18$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7438754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0f…8b08backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly78c65.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3325265.1%164 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Ergi Kirkin27c63.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.213,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1e76…47fabacked Ergi Kirkin40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410751.4%55 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…063abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly66c59.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.561050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Ergi Kirkin25c57.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.156817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5f32…b46cbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly79c56.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.82425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2280…3780backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly48c53.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2815163.6%96 W · 55 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly76c52.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4336944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly60c48.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.522,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca9…0898backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly60c48.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2924965.1%162 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Ergi Kirkin41c45.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5642344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.495742.1%403 W · 554 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…b4b4backed Ergi Kirkin36c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.224839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly59c35.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.491,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d5…5a73backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly59c33.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.565860.3%35 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly79c31.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.685,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe36…9413backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly67c31.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4631358.5%183 W · 130 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093b…4e14backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.617848.9%87 W · 91 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly50c29.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5534957.6%201 W · 148 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly73c28.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8121172%152 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly58c27.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.725745.9%118 W · 139 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly59c26.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.977553.3%40 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly76c25.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9245051.8%233 W · 217 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed Ergi Kirkin42c24.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2351347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.088072.5%58 W · 22 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x17c5…3483backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly79c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly69c15.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.