Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f2c0b9ae7efa57befbc88b5489d47d1a5d0d413d44278faa9c36b735de913f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 8,175$5,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,763.02 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 36c | 7,146$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 76c | 1,196$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 650.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 18c | 624.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 36c | 333.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 220.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 58c | 176.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 42c | 153.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Under | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 38c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 58c | 51.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 34.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 66c | 27.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.