Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe094ab8235c1a2db707dd24caece43e68af2cdf13f9d3d3636528ecd49d691b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Monaco FCof Olympique de Marseille, AS Monaco FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Olympique de Marseille | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed AS Monaco FC | 73c | 1,211$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Olympique de Marseille | 13c | 972.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AS Monaco FC | 76c | 460.6$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Olympique de Marseille | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked AS Monaco FC | 72c | 189$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Olympique de Marseille | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Olympique de Marseille | 29c | 170.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…2d72backed Olympique de Marseille | 26c | 156.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Olympique de Marseille | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Olympique de Marseille | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Olympique de Marseille | 17c | 99.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked AS Monaco FC | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Olympique de Marseille | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed AS Monaco FC | 76c | 79.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Olympique de Marseille | 28c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Olympique de Marseille | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Olympique de Marseille | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Olympique de Marseille | 26c | 61.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AS Monaco FC | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Olympique de Marseille | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed AS Monaco FC | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked AS Monaco FC | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Olympique de Marseille | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Olympique de Marseille | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Olympique de Marseille | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed AS Monaco FC | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked AS Monaco FC | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed AS Monaco FC | 76c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked AS Monaco FC | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…7e3fbacked AS Monaco FC | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.