Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9e30d858cc5ae50e22a703be74eefe8c9e53ea331855117c587a1b3f126ffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 20,147$14,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,583.02 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 20c | 15,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 64c | 3,302$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 77c | 1,729$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.03 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 1,433$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.51 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 57c | 772.09$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.09 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 55c | 550$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…5d1bbacked Over | 28c | 408.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 40c | 393.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 35c | 344.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 72c | 300.71$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 63c | 176.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 172.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 54c | 142.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 59c | 125.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 29c | 122$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 70c | 119$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…6a7cbacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…bde4backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 30c | 68.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 61c | 65.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…48fabacked Over | 63c | 60.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 45c | 40.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 58c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 57c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…a165backed Over | 51c | 28.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Over | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Over | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.