Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3efb74ff44250282535a4c381f898a156d6fb5f1d4465883c036daaad0754cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 2,630$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.12 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 42c | 2,108$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.48 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 57c | 1,749$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed Under | 57c | 1,322$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 746.55$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.14 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 57c | 540$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 43c | 155.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 40c | 136$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…bfb8backed Under | 18c | 124.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 119.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 17c | 101$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 67c | 91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…cb27backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 59c | 83.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 83.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 59c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 75.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 73c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 20c | 68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 16c | 66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 17c | 59.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…205dbacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 60c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 63c | 33.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…5348backed Under | 37c | 33.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…d623backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…db15backed Over | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…a8babacked Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 42c | 31.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Over | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…d3c2backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…cab7backed Over | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 77cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.