College Football · resolved market
Spread: Michigan (-21.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5424a32e3618593d6b93c03517c98fa2fb99be7f5217294cbbd3ef4b6052ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Purdue Boilermakersof Michigan, Purdue Boilermakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 37,746$19,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,147.91 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Michigan | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Michigan | 47c | 10,766$5,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,060.1 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan | 48c | 8,333$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.84 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 7,547$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,547.17 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Michigan | 49c | 5,227$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.56 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Michigan | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Michigan | 48c | 2,850$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 2,700$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Michigan | 48c | 1,718$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.64 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…6783backed Michigan | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 1,665$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 51c | 1,630$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.7 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…2e0ebacked Michigan | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…e69ebacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4539…242abacked Michigan | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…4f34backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…8e2cbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Purdue Boilermakers | 49c | 998$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.98 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…0131backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…1471backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…2f20backed Michigan | 47c | 830$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…ea56backed Michigan | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…96fcbacked Michigan | 47c | 780$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…84f4backed Michigan | 47c | 750$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…1866backed Michigan | 47c | 680$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…ff48backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 650$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…3af1backed Michigan | 47c | 610$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…abadbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 610$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…5051backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…bbf3backed Michigan | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…a1aabacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…0270backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 565$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…e1c2backed Michigan | 47c | 555$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Purdue Boilermakers | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…81a2backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 480$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…3112backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…458ebacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 51c | 300.02$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…5c7abacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Michigan | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Purdue Boilermakers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Michigan | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Purdue Boilermakers | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Michigan | 48c | 81.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Michigan | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan (-21.5)this page
- Purdue Boilermakers vs. MichiganMichigan won
- Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan: O/U 48.5Under won
- Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan: O/U 49.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.