Tennis · resolved market
Bogota: Nicolas Mejia vs Matias Soto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5533dcb20d6b2f8e1a8bb34ad92e3d926cce82567288059a2c82aca14ace262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolas Mejiaof Nicolas Mejia, Matias Soto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Nicolas Mejia | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.1 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matias Soto | 11c | 1,374$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matias Soto | 21c | 1,205$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…c46ebacked Matias Soto | 13c | 1,121$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 282 | 21.6%61 W · 221 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matias Soto | 22c | 1,115$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.32 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Matias Soto | 33c | 1,077$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.11 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nicolas Mejia | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Nicolas Mejia | 67c | 739$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Nicolas Mejia | 72c | 692.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Matias Soto | 32c | 520.66$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 67c | 501.2$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Nicolas Mejia | 68c | 442.67$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Matias Soto | 20c | 433$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Nicolas Mejia | 68c | 411$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Matias Soto | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 30.5%131 W · 298 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Matias Soto | 33c | 374.67$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Nicolas Mejia | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Matias Soto | 20c | 317.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…4a18backed Nicolas Mejia | 68c | 286.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Matias Soto | 25c | 274.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Matias Soto | 7c | 267$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Matias Soto | 32c | 239.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Matias Soto | 18c | 208.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Nicolas Mejia | 78c | 199.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Nicolas Mejia | 67c | 179$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Matias Soto | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Nicolas Mejia | 69c | 166.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Matias Soto | 12c | 142.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…60f0backed Nicolas Mejia | 76c | 140.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 281 | 47.3%133 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Nicolas Mejia | 72c | 122.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Matias Soto | 33c | 117.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Matias Soto | 27c | 112.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Matias Soto | 13c | 110.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Matias Soto | 10c | 107.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Nicolas Mejia | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Matias Soto | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…5bc2backed Nicolas Mejia | 74c | 52.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Matias Soto | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Nicolas Mejia | 77c | 49.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nicolas Mejia | 68c | 36.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Nicolas Mejia | 68c | 36.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Nicolas Mejia | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe6…3fd4backed Nicolas Mejia | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…7b68backed Nicolas Mejia | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bogota: Nicolas Mejia vs Matias Sotothis page
- Set Handicap: Mejia (-1.5) vs Soto (+1.5)Mejia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.