Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55a74d97531f7903732a9f3923a7a4ee8c393e97b9801041e085cc5e134bd80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,652 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 4c | 3,179$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 573.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 478.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 13c | 375$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 373.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 25c | 354.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 311.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 305.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 222.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 32c | 219.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 10c | 209.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 194.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 164$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 162.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 106.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 68c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 89.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 83.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 18c | 82.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 59.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 55.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 78c | 54.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 53.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 51.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 49.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 27c | 48.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 48.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 72c | 41.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 41.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 25c | 40.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 37.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 35c | 35.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 35c | 32.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 37c | 31.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…f4d7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 29.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 70c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…29cebacked No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 73c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 66c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.