Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe552ef1f502421bbaf83ef063e82df943791bbf4c94a0c7acc6415db94ffe546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1236…c968backed No | 1c | 1,455$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 72c | 1,119$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.36 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 74c | 729.29$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.32 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 481.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 22c | 464.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 47c | 422.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 379.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 48c | 289.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 76c | 254.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 49c | 204.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 53c | 190.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 46c | 190$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 37c | 186.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 178.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 36c | 175.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 55c | 173$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 48c | 168.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 167.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 164$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 33c | 163.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 36c | 149.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 52c | 148.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 144.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 41c | 142.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 122.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 33c | 119.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 69c | 115.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 51c | 111.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 55c | 107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 45c | 97.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0cbabacked Yes | 14c | 96.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 40c | 92.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 87.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 79c | 85.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 57c | 78.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 75.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 20c | 73.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 55c | 72.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 72.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 69.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…ec6ebacked Yes | 48c | 63.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 66c | 60.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 41c | 60.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 54.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 54c | 52.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 78c | 44.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 33c | 41.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 39.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…f943backed Yes | 47c | 38.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 78c | 37.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 46c | 36.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 54c | 35.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 43c | 33.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 50c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 39c | 32.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 40c | 31.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 45c | 29.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 41c | 27.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 46c | 26.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…43b1backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 51c | 25.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 46c | 23.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 60c | 22.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 55c | 22.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 19.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 59c | 19.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed No | 77c | 18.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.