TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,011 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1236…c968backed No1c1,455$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes72c1,119$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3643238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes74c729.29$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c481.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No22c464.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2346824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes47c422.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4415639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c379.91$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes48c289.5$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.621436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes76c254.83$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.039836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed No49c204.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes53c190.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.331170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x98f7…a036backed Yes46c190$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.873630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes37c186.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c178.32$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes36c175.1$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2524216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No55c173$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3113748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes48c168.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.791,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c167.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes40c164$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.521,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes33c163.25$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.247727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes44c160$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.632133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked No55c150$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.217330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes36c149.29$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.239626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes52c148.46$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1511533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No64c144.7$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.283,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes41c142.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2320338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No62c122.89$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.371,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes33c119.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6433726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes69c115.24$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.249040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No51c111.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5729056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No55c107$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b63…ded6backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.232123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes45c97.87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.831643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3552…0cbabacked Yes14c96.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No40c92.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9813531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c87.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.044,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes79c85.3$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0724932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes57c78.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.391729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No65c75.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No20c73.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes55c72.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.47647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes41c72.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c69.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.963,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e49…ec6ebacked Yes48c63.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.11219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-66.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No66c60.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a7…16eebacked Yes41c60.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.673218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes37c54.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2955942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes54c52.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.935733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes32c52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.362,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes78c44.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.589162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes33c41.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6836819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.666735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2045127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes43c39.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3933839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3148…f943backed Yes47c38.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+112%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes78c37.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1611950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes46c36.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.698432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685e…983abacked Yes56c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.772445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes54c35.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.391770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+54.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6712223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Yes43c33.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes45c33.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4921235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes50c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5359818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No61c32.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c79…c259backed Yes39c32.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes40c31.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4122728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed No45c29.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.253542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes49c29.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8888…bebabacked Yes41c27.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.42433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed No59c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0110736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes46c26.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.391,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No50c26.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.027233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes56c25.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.441,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe28…43b1backed No77c25.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.751050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes51c25.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.351735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0531029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes42c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.928940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No56c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.445962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes49c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes46c23.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6133535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ec…6373backed No67c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.412161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No60c22.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes55c22.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1244147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x258d…4fd6backed No72c20.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153625%9 W · 27 L-6.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-65.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb830…2ff3backed No50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1049547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No57c19.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No59c19.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.479160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed No77c18.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.