Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81adc5dfa655322878e47284504858d9a29d4770b6dd11b1dd5c241b51cffa69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,715 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 0c | 20,215$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,309$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 67c | 1,122$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.88 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 682.21$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.03 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 9c | 465.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 67c | 374.32$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…1745backed Yes | 75c | 340.28$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 11c | 339.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 30c | 335.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 10c | 328.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 320.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 40c | 297.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 261.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 253.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0cbabacked Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 11c | 246.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 9c | 238.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 67c | 224.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 211.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 50c | 204.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 199.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 39c | 188.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 24c | 185.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 9c | 181.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 57c | 179.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 171.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 170.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 50c | 152.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…2e35backed Yes | 14c | 145.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 14c | 145.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ad…8b67backed Yes | 14c | 145.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed Yes | 18c | 142.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 29c | 140.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 128.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked Yes | 14c | 125.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 124.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 59c | 123.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 56c | 120.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 117.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 44c | 115.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 20c | 114.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 65c | 113.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 43c | 112.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92b…84afbacked Yes | 48c | 110.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 52c | 97.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 25c | 91.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 17c | 90.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 16c | 84.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 77c | 81.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 81.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 20c | 79.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 25c | 79.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 72.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 63.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 21c | 62.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 39c | 61.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 24c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 25c | 55.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 25c | 55.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853f…9bdfbacked Yes | 43c | 55.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…2f58backed Yes | 70c | 51.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed No | 77c | 51.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…7452backed Yes | 36c | 49.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 49.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 49.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 51c | 45.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked Yes | 39c | 45.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0b…b89bbacked Yes | 39c | 45.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 31c | 44.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…921abacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 72c | 40.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 48c | 39.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x580c…6db8backed Yes | 40c | 37.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…544fbacked Yes | 39c | 37.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…921cbacked Yes | 37c | 37.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…f527backed Yes | 41c | 35.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 63c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 31.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…2574backed Yes | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 37c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 77c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…43b1backed Yes | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 24.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 66c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x227b…549abacked Yes | 50c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…8ab4backed No | 65c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.