AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5984ea4def5821bdaa91af925037e54d0432936586ecb294cd75bd920ddf360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 56c | 2,151$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…02b3backed Yes | 45c | 1,677$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 74c | 1,663$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 49c | 1,401$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 47c | 1,205$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.95 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked No | 69c | 1,159$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 42c | 837.28$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.72 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…c2f8backed Yes | 52c | 689.01$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 44c | 601.3$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…ce6cbacked No | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…67dbbacked No | 71c | 590$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked No | 61c | 490$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…0495backed No | 70c | 425.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked Yes | 49c | 414.54$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…d54abacked Yes | 53c | 398.11$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 62c | 391.39$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84a…1dc3backed No | 53c | 325$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…294fbacked Yes | 35c | 302.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…aee9backed No | 61c | 285.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 31c | 285$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6a63backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…f091backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…2a0ebacked No | 54c | 183.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…bba4backed No | 61c | 162.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…8561backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…8999backed No | 76c | 131.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 130.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8d…e071backed Yes | 51c | 107.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…e7e2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…a7afbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…99ebbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…20fdbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…1209backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…c259backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…8824backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 61c | 48.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…2902backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…d874backed No | 65c | 38.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed No | 79c | 31.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…5829backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31?this page
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.