AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0275ff4c1237a0dfc1b6a0cb6817895065584177e3dcf5e868725fceb2165b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 50c | 2,933$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.91 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 67c | 2,050$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…fe7fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,719$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84a…1dc3backed Yes | 61c | 1,466$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked No | 49c | 1,459$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 42c | 1,413$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.18 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…df8ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,394$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 49c | 1,259$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80a…bc57backed Yes | 76c | 1,246$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…02b3backed Yes | 52c | 1,219$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.66 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…349fbacked Yes | 69c | 807.3$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…8999backed Yes | 69c | 720.42$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…ce6cbacked Yes | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 51c | 537.71$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 55c | 510.08$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 75c | 493.93$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 31c | 493$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…c2f8backed Yes | 50c | 473.35$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…6989backed Yes | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 45c | 367.61$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…223abacked No | 49c | 351.86$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 51c | 345.22$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 67c | 326.7$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…a1bbbacked Yes | 47c | 309.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…d9a5backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…2a0ebacked Yes | 55c | 274.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 263.93$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed Yes | 58c | 257.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…f091backed Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…0abebacked No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…54f4backed Yes | 65c | 230.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf9…fceebacked Yes | 60c | 229.36$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…4f5abacked Yes | 49c | 220$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…f689backed No | 40c | 203$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6a63backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…aee9backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 53c | 121.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd0…8babbacked Yes | 79c | 99.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…1a49backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed No | 35c | 87.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c7…5d25backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…af7cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…ca37backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…efecbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…8824backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…2902backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…87b9backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 71c | 39.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…d54abacked No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…1b27backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0533…cf1cbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +276.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…108fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…cacfbacked Yes | 54c | 22.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…7e8dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?this page
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.