Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59a4ca030d7fc2387a4c1c39b6a9e2ea61c96ca4776c6f967f02f13495475e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 1c | 1,132$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 1c | 1,114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 2c | 649.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 30c | 601.48$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.14 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 568.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 67c | 325.25$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 288.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 200.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 27c | 197.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 188$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 170.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 25c | 157$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 107.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 105.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 105.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 75c | 101.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 80c | 80.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 72c | 71.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…e7b2backed Yes | 22c | 70.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 54.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 71c | 51.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 73c | 51.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 47.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 46.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 44.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 72c | 43.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 80c | 36.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked No | 74c | 30.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 23.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 77c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.