NFL · resolved market
Spread: ATL (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a4bec7cd8e41b3b4f71fd011d370f5ade533428d990d9568708e24106a1cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CARof ATL, CAR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked CAR | 50c | 90,667$45,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,984.66 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked ATL | 49c | 28,640$14,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,068.66 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked ATL | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked ATL | 50c | 19,108$9,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,554 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed ATL | 50c | 14,624$7,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,285.62 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked ATL | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed CAR | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed CAR | 51c | 3,960$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.43 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed ATL | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked ATL | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed ATL | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed ATL | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked ATL | 49c | 450$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed ATL | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed CAR | 51c | 395$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.78 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…fe5abacked CAR | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed ATL | 50c | 344.06$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed ATL | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed ATL | 49c | 277.38$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed CAR | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed ATL | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed ATL | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e405backed ATL | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed CAR | 50c | 127.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked ATL | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed ATL | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…e967backed CAR | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…6008backed ATL | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked CAR | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed ATL | 49c | 97.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed CAR | 49c | 97.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked ATL | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed ATL | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked ATL | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed ATL | 49c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed ATL | 48c | 78.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked ATL | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed ATL | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed ATL | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked ATL | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed ATL | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed ATL | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…042fbacked ATL | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ca8bbacked ATL | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…b6a0backed ATL | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked CAR | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa831…851bbacked ATL | 50c | 33.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…0e57backed CAR | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed ATL | 48c | 29.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed CAR | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1b…5ac9backed ATL | 50c | 27.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked ATL | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked ATL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked ATL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed ATL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked CAR | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked ATL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed ATL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ATL (-4.5)this page
- ATL vs. CAR: O/U 49.5Under won
- Falcons vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Spread: ATL (-6.5)CAR won
- Spread: ATL (-7.5)CAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.