World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5c0b1e8f466f0a2e73872d664015d43ac6a49b925690dc597261f3b3d784fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,700$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.88 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 1,420$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 7c | 563.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 7c | 386.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 346.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 6c | 319.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…b37dbacked Yes | 8c | 290.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 217.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 6c | 192.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 7c | 157.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 12c | 156.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 60.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.