World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67e96cb418abf5d97540e2c3281b11acadf4633879e4fdee927f03c8b14ae2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 981.76$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.99 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 617.1$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.61 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 470.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.8 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 18c | 289.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 274.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 273.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 264.94$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 258.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 257.11$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 242.34$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 225.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 78c | 224.19$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 223.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 222.11$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 220.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 42c | 202.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed Yes | 45c | 198.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 195.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 39c | 177.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 39c | 174.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 173$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 170.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 59c | 170.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 163.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 57c | 157.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 156.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 44c | 155.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 152.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 143.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 142.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 137.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 129.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 124$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 123.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 45c | 119.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 110.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 110.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 95.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 40c | 94.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 93.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 92.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 88.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 86.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 37c | 85.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 80.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 80.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 80.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 70.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 30c | 67.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 45c | 64.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 64.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 61.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 61.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 41c | 59.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 58.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 57.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 53.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 41c | 49.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 49.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…da0abacked No | 61c | 49.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 46.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 65c | 46.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 44.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…c186backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 60c | 40.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 39.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 38.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 38.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 61c | 35.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 35.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 38c | 35.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 64c | 34.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.