Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5d128c87dca70fdfa0b4562b61793e61042bc6e871c687a6b5475c948a750df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 0c | 5,007$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,915$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 69 | 1.4%1 W · 68 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 37c | 1,762$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.59 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 44c | 580.46$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.9 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 43c | 478.87$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 17c | 339.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 12c | 330.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 304 | 24.7%75 W · 229 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 310.79$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 249.83$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb63…e6dbbacked No | 38c | 220.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 220.32$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 56c | 205$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 204 | 39.7%81 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 147$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 68c | 103.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 797 | 47.1%375 W · 422 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 473 | 33.2%157 W · 316 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 596 | 21.6%129 W · 467 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 35c | 94.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 208 | 31.3%65 W · 143 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 83.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 64c | 76.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 71.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 70.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 41c | 68.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 70c | 56.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 50.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 575 | 57.7%332 W · 243 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 48.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 33c | 46.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 466 | 47.4%221 W · 245 L | +46.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 41c | 42.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed Yes | 52c | 40.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 31.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…cf9abacked Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 29.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked Yes | 72c | 16.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.