MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5dba7a7847d03c5c4f050e8e9b56d9ae4b523c44f73c1623d3e5169830249f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 14,067$6,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,632.01 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 5,589$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.45 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 2,510$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.4 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 54c | 1,851$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.54 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 1,500$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 1,470$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.3 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 1,450$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.13 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 987.32$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.15 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 54c | 897.89$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.86 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 43c | 579.46$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.84 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 4c | 552.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +339.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 44c | 483.2$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 454.33$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 56c | 449$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.44 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 15c | 413.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 58c | 381.52$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.28 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 303.42$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…466ebacked Under | 54c | 270.11$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 67c | 254.85$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 58c | 214.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.18 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 55c | 177.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 55c | 171$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 160.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 103.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 70.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 47c | 59.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 58.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Over | 48c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 54c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…3269backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 72cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.