Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5dd874a8d1453005a4c2556f5bf7bb49318904477129192cfd3a3dfc7256138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,892$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 772.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…908bbacked Yes | 21c | 408.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 6c | 402.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 236.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 223.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 20c | 168.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 17c | 118.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 12c | 106.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 24c | 104.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 80c | 102.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…e7a7backed Yes | 15c | 77.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 69.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 69.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 23c | 53.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 44.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 43.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 24c | 42.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Yes | 24c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 39.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 37.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.