Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8d7251252ef473f3bd91aab4f4d0483336fd2000205b1115347cd1a57fb06a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 16c | 845.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 16c | 542.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 57c | 488.37$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.37 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 5c | 460.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 17c | 456.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 65c | 425.8$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 4c | 420.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 354.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 64c | 313.89$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 284.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 254.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 236.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked No | 10c | 218.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 216.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 7c | 201.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 70c | 166.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 162$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 12c | 145.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 143.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 17c | 127.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 9c | 121.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 25c | 119.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 51c | 104.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 102.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 100.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 49c | 83.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 45c | 83.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 82.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 48c | 79.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…f076backed No | 31c | 73.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 69.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 57c | 69.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 34c | 58.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 57.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 52.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 55c | 49.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 80c | 48.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 45c | 47.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 45.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 62c | 44.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 43.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 52c | 42.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 29c | 40.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 74c | 40.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 58c | 39.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 38.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 35.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 34.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 30.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 59c | 28.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 61c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 66c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 76c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 57c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 80c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.