Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc73acadec786eee0ea5978da3542b582a267219bd6cb7be56d5a64cc14a1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 30c | 335.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 21c | 223.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 22c | 201.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 75c | 199.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 165.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 158.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 23c | 149.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 78c | 127.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 121.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 102.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 79c | 100.73$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 100.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 91.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 25c | 86.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 22c | 81.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 75c | 77.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 76.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed No | 70c | 69.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 62.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 75c | 59.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 28c | 47.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 45.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 33c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 30.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 28.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 80c | 12.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.