Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5e02cdcc4ddb8a0aa807e75a12592cc07520f74cb73a7a6ca087b2f202a8d82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Under | 22c | 5,555$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 3,838$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 2,001$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.21 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Under | 55c | 1,936$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.3 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 80c | 1,100$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 78c | 186$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 78c | 98.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 78c | 93.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Over | 78c | 77.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 22c | 67.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 78c | 53.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 78c | 52.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 78c | 30.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Over | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 78c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.