Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da1261d995e0b8ddf67ad3328b5a35751ccd802d5f2202cbfba69da23cb7e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 62c | 4,032$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 62c | 2,813$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.06 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 38c | 2,154$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.73 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 1,967$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.77 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 62c | 1,523$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.96 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 38c | 1,476$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.9 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 1,155$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.05 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 62c | 1,101$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.62 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,021$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.52 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 777.22$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.11 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 61c | 687.85$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.59 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…1b9ebacked Over | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 18c | 509$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 486.78$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.8 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 62c | 366.21$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.05 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 345.31$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 36c | 345.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.25 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 249.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 62c | 245.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 31c | 221.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 10c | 142.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 12c | 132.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 41c | 115.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Over | 40c | 99.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 38c | 86.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 53c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 67c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 71.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 46c | 70.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 38c | 66.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Over | 61c | 66.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 39c | 66.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 38c | 64.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 38c | 59.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 61c | 45.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 44.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…0c83backed Under | 70c | 43.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 62c | 33.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Under | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 39c | 28.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 44c | 27.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…99ecbacked Over | 62c | 24.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.