MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5e48ced5a033efb517ce06cbb6b8caab1ce6ac2b65b08239142cf5188b80253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 1,181$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,023$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 476.56$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.11 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Baltimore Orioles | 3c | 346.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 309.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Baltimore Orioles | 5c | 267.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 11c | 263.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 57.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 44.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 37.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 35.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 32.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.