MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0bb0048627a6eb083aa16969321458df7723c313631e79b7b01e481157ab1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 46c | 5,156$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.9 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 4,431$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 4,300$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.92 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 55c | 3,640$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 46c | 2,674$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.1 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 45c | 2,139$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.08 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 46c | 1,526$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.19 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 54c | 933.98$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.63 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 876.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 23c | 747$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 64c | 721.1$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 698.14$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 688$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 53c | 640$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 588.01$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 534.18$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.67 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 414.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 50c | 278.83$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 220.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 55c | 173.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 55c | 153.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 47c | 149.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 47c | 148.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 145.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 48c | 130.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 117$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 54c | 101.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 50c | 95.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 46c | 86.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 46c | 78.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 55c | 72.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 52c | 57.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 46c | 46.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 53c | 42.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 28c | 39.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 36.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 33c | 31.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Under | 47c | 29.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 47c | 27.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5b…4d9bbacked Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 55c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Over | 64c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.