Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f2fd543162503fe33d67154fc085cbd38d72f73bdd5d472d201b2e2a6278e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Heroic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Heroic | 61c | 10,415$6,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,364.28 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 9,000$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,289.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.99 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Heroic | 57c | 2,714$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.69 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,917$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Heroic | 57c | 1,440$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.78 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.96 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Heroic | 56c | 989.91$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.35 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 3c | 948$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Heroic | 35c | 717.79$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 713.98$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.69 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 713.97$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.75 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 684.01$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.98 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 54c | 596.28$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.99 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 55c | 420.08$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.48 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Heroic | 62c | 271.29$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.66 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heroic | 54c | 163.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Heroic | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…037abacked Heroic | 55c | 32.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Heroic | 49c | 30.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Heroic | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.