Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6c8957f63df82214b8bafc9a114c5b903d443fcc15fa2b4b040cbc9b3202de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Heroic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 5,817$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.97 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Heroic | 71c | 5,785$4,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.66 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Heroic | 55c | 2,925$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Heroic | 62c | 1,995$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.89 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 1,961$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.46 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 1,680$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.4 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 1,322$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.38 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 1,212$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.12 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 1,086$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.53 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 42c | 1,027$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.09 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 41c | 822.08$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…efddbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 656.75$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 651.09$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.09 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Heroic | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 598.85$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.85 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Heroic | 64c | 401$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.13 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Heroic | 67c | 372.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 349.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.67 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 338.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.94 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Heroic | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Heroic | 71c | 240$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.27 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 223.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 223$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 123.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 121.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Heroic | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Heroic | 72c | 66.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 25.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.